LAKEWOOD, Colo. — It’s still early in the HPAI season, making poultry forecasts precarious. The current LMIC forecasts for turkey production in 2023 are expected to rebound 3% after 2022’s 5% decline from the previous year, and next year is expected to add another 3% taking the U.S. closer to levels seen in 2020.

This is a very different scenario than what we saw last year when prices moved to record levels and remained there for most of the year. This year, we have seen a significant reset in turkey part prices. Across most of the turkey parts complex prices have declined. Domestic fresh delivered prices for drumsticks, necks, and tenderloins are all off the start of the year pricing by more than 30%. Mechanically separated 15-20% fat content is down more than 20%, while scapula meat is down 25%. Wholesale turkey breast prices have seen the largest decline this spring, falling from a high of $6.70 per pound to this week’s low of $3.14 per pound, a 53% decrease. Whole bird pricing is down less than 1% from the beginning of 2023, but is expected to correct swiftly based on what pricing has done in turkey parts.

The last several months have seen an increase in bird mortality in the turkey hatchery data which makes the declines in prices all the more unusual. Prior to 2022, the percent change in poults with the corresponding percent change from a year ago in slaughter five months from poult placement was 0.3% difference on average since 2015. From 2022 to March 2023 that difference has been 6% smaller slaughter. The latest data USDA NASS released last Friday reflects data for the month of March. It showed eggs in incubators down 5% while net poults hatched were down 2%. Estimates in poult placements earlier this year called for a 2-3% increases. March slaughter data has not been released yet, but total turkey slaughter in February was up 0.7% from the year earlier compared to the increase in net poult placements of 3% in the five months prior.

— Livestock Marketing Information Center