LAKE CRYSTAL, Minn. — The Sept. 12 USDA Crop Report decreased the projected U.S. average corn and soybean yields for 2023, as compared to the August National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) yield estimates; however, that was offset by increases in the expected 2023 harvested acreage for both crops. The latest NASS yield estimates were based on U.S. crop conditions as of Sept. 1 and were the first 2023 USDA yield estimates that included actual field data, including in some States with major impacts from this year’s drought.
Total U.S. corn and soybean harvested acreage totals were increased in the latest USDA report, compared to the August acreage estimates. The increase in acreage resulted from less-than-expected prevented planted acres in 2023. The end-result was a slight increase in the expected total 2023 corn production and a slight decrease in the estimated 2023 soybean production. The immediate market response was a price decline for both December corn futures and November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
The Sept. 12 USDA Report projects the 2023 U.S. average corn yield at 173.8 bushels per acre, which is a decline from 175.1 bushels per acre in the August USDA report. The projected 2023 national corn yield compares to 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022 and the record U.S. corn yield of 177 bushels per acre in 2021, as well as to 171.4 bushels per acre in 2020 and 167.4 bushels per acre in 2019. USDA increased the total 2023 harvested corn acreage in the U.S. by 774,000 acres from earlier estimates, based on crop acreage certification data filed by producers through the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices. USDA is now estimating total U.S. corn production for 2023 at just over 15.13 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 10 percent from the 2022 production level of 13.73 billion bushels and would be similar to the 2021 production of 15.1 billion bushels.
USDA is estimating Minnesota’s 2023 average corn yield at 180 bushels per acre, which was a decrease of 3 bushels per acre from the August estimate. The projected 2023 corn yield compares to the 2022 record yield of 195 bushels per acre and the 2021 average yield of 178 bushels per acre. The September 12 report also decreased Iowa’s 2023 average corn yield by 3 bushels per acre compared to the August estimate, lowering the projected yield to 200 bushels per acre. Iowa’s projected 2023 statewide corn yield would be the same as the final 2022 yield and compares to 205 bushels per acre in 2021.
The 2023 USDA corn yield estimates for the major corn producing states in the eastern corn belt are Illinois at 198 bushels per acre, compared to 214 bushels per acre in 2022; Indiana at 194 bushels per acre, compared to 190 bushels per acre in 2022; and Ohio at 195 bushels per acre, compared to 187 bushels per acre in 2022. Several western corn belt states showed higher yield estimates for 2023, including Nebraska at 177 bushels per acre, compared to 165 bushels per acre in 2022, South Dakota at 146 bushels per acre, compared to 132 bushels per acre in 2022, and North Dakota at 138 bushels per acre, compared to 131 bushels per acre in 2022. The 2023 yield estimate for Wisconsin is 165 bushels per acre, compared to 180 bushels per acre in 2022. It should be noted that of the states listed, only Ohio, North and South Dakota showed an increase in the corn yield projection on September 1 compared to August 1. All other listed states listed showed a decline in the corn yield estimate.
The USDA Report on Sept. 12 estimated total 2022 U.S. soybean production at just under 4.15 billion bushels, which would be down slightly from the 2022 soybean production of slightly below 4.28 billion bushels. USDA lowered the projected 2023 U.S. average soybean yield to 50.1 bushels per acre from 50.9 bushels per acre in the August report. The 2023 NASS soybean yield estimate compares to final U.S. soybean yields of 49.5 bushels per acre in 2022, 51.4 bushels per acre in 2021, and 50.2 bushels per acre in 2020. The record national average soybean yield was 52 bushels per acre in 2016. The USDA 2023 soybean yield projection was slightly higher than the average yield estimates by many grain trading analysts, which is pressuring soybean prices.
USDA is estimating Minnesota’s 2023 average soybean yield at 48 bushels per acre, which is down one bushel per acre from the August estimate. The 2023 yield projection compares to recent statewide yields of 50 bushels per acre in 2022, 47 bushels per acre in 2021, and 49 bushels per acre in 2020, as well as the record statewide soybean yield of 52.5 bushels per acre in 2016. The estimated 2023 soybean yield for Iowa is at 58 bushels per acre, which is the same as the August projected yield. The 2023 estimated yield compares to 58.5 bushels per acre in 2022, the record statewide soybean yield of 62 bushels per acre in 2021, and 53 bushels per acre in 2020.
The projected 2023 yields in major soybean producing eastern corn belt states include Illinois at 61 bushels per acre, compared to 63 bushels per acre in 2022, Indiana at 60 bushels per acre, compared to 57.5 bushels per acre in 2022; and Ohio at 58 bushels per acre, compared to 55.5 bushels per acre in 2022. Similar to corn, soybean yields in Nebraska and South Dakota are expected to increase significantly in 2023, compared to the drought-reduced soybean yields in 2022. The 2023 Nebraska soybean yield is estimated at 55 bushels per acre, compared to 49 bushels per acre in 2022, with South Dakota projected at 43 bushels per acre in 2023, compared to 38 bushels per acre in 2022. The 2023 projected soybean yield of 46 bushels per acre in Wisconsin is considerably lower than the final yield of 54 bushels per acre in 2022, while the 2023 yield of 33 bushels per acre in North Dakota is only slightly below the final yield of 35 bushels per acre in 2022.
Sept. 12 WASDE Report
The USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) was also released on Sept. 12. The report included the projected decreases in the 2023 U.S. corn yield and corn production that were referenced earlier. The report projects increased corn usage for ethanol and livestock feed during 2023-24 marketing year, as compared to the 2022-23 corn usage levels. U.S. corn export levels for 2023-2024 are estimated at 2.050 billion bushels, which is up from the estimated export total of 1.665 billion bushels for 2022-23. The 2023-24 corn export level would still trail the strong export totals of 2.472 bushels in 2021-22 and 2.745 billion bushels in 2020-21.
The U.S. corn ending stocks for 2023-24 are projected at 2.22 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 53 percent from the estimated carryover of 1.452 billion bushels for 2022-23. The latest 2023-24 corn ending stocks projection would also be considerably higher than the final corn carryover levels of 1.38 billion bushels in the 2021-22 marketing year, and 1.23 billion bushels in 2020-21.
The higher projected 2023-24 corn ending stocks are putting considerable pressure on corn price projections for the 2023-24 marketing year, which extends from Sept. 1, 2023, through August 31, 2024. USDA is estimating the average on-farm corn price for the 2023-24 marketing year at $4.90 per bushel, which is the same as the August report. The 2022-23 national average corn price, which will be finalized on September 30, 2023, is estimated at $6.55 per bushel, which compares to previous final national average prices of $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21, $3.56 per bushel in 2019-20, and $3.61 per bushel for 2018-19.
The recent WASDE report projected 2023-24 soybean ending stocks at 220 million bushels, which is a decrease of 25 million bushels from the August estimate. The 2023-24 estimated soybean ending stocks compare to previous ending stocks of an estimated 250 million bushels for 2022-23, 274 million bushels in 2021-22, and 257 million bushels in 2020-21. Soybean exports for 2023-24 are projected at 1.79 billion bushels, which is down from an estimated 1.99 billion bushels in 2022-23 and 2.15 billion bushels in 2021-22.
USDA is now projecting the average on-farm soybean price for the 2023-24 marketing year at $12.90 per bushel, which is an increase of $.20 per bushel from the August price estimate. The 2022-23 estimated final national average soybean price is estimated at $14.20 per bushel, which compares to national average prices of $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel for 2020-21, and $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20.
— Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst and Senior Vice President, MinnStar Bank
